Have you ever looked at a very rare coin (say a penny) that could be purchased for $2,000 and thought – that’s only worth once cent?! It’s funny how the overall scarcity or surplus of a given item can “trump” it’s actual worth or value.
Ok, great, you may be saying … what does the above have to do with why interest rates are higher than one would expect or desire them to be, especially when the economy is extremely weak (meaning rates should be lower)?
The answer is that the above example is actually a less-than-perfect way to describe what is happening with interest rates today – scarcity is trumping value.
Let me explain …
Given the events of last week, rates should have decreased. The Fed made a huge rate cut. The economy is weak. The government has taken many extraordinary actions to secure the credit markets. All of these should have equaled lower mortgage interest rates.
However …
People (both individuals and investing institutions) are frankly scared with all that is going on in the economy today. Collectively, many are taking money out of the market and holding onto cash. Metaphorically, we are burying money in a mayonnaise jar in the back yard instead of investing in stocks, bonds or even putting it in a money market fund.
The result of people being very conservative is that we are not investing in things like mortgage backed securities. Since few dollars are being invested into the mortgage backed securities, there is less money available for mortgage loans over the past few weeks – creating a scarcity of money to lend. Since the demand for mortgages is greater than the supply of money, rates have gone up.
Said differently, given the events of last week, money should be less expensive to borrow, but since money to borrow is scarce, it is actually more expensive to borrow this week because of that scarcity.
Ok, so what’s next?
Let’s go back to the very rare penny worth $2,000. Suppose someone discovered a chest containing an enormous quantity of these pennies. Since the penny was no longer scarce, the market price would fall and begin to represent its true value. A penny that is not rare or scarce is just a penny.
The same may happen to interest rates over the next few weeks – namely, if investors become more confident and begin to invest again (making more money available for mortgages), the money “drought” would go away. If money is no longer extremely scarce, rates would fall closer to where you would have expected them to have fallen as a result of last week’s rate cuts.
Hence, if you are in the market to refinance: (a) today is not the best time to lock in a rate, because rates are quite high due to the scarcity of funds to borrow, but (b) it is wise to keep in touch with your lender and prepare for a refinance, as rates may come down quickly if the money drought starts to ease up.
This blog was brought to us courtesy of our trusted lender, Paul Nagel of SunTrust Mortgage. If you have questions or need information, feel free to contact me at pnagel2 at cox.net or 703.201.5147.